AI Commercial Auto Fleet Renewal Analysis Playbook

A national logistics company with a 1,200-vehicle fleet is up for renewal. The fleet has a 3-year combined loss ratio of 118%. The broker is claiming that 60% of the losses came from one catastrophic accident (an at-fault crash involving a fatality). The carrier's underwriting guidelines require a loss ratio below 90% for standard renewal.

When to use this playbook

• Use this playbook when the decision looks like the situation above: A national logistics company with a 1,200-vehicle fleet is up for renewal.
• It is a fit when you have source files in hand and need a structured, reviewable analysis — not a generic chat answer about "Commercial Auto Fleet Renewal Analysis".
• Do not use it as a substitute for licensed, legal, clinical, or authorized official judgment in the domain.

What you'll need

• 3-year loss run (all claims, by vehicle type, by driver, by loss cause)
• Large loss detail for the catastrophic accident
• Fleet safety program documentation (telematics, driver training, MVR policy)
• Industry loss ratios for commercial trucking fleets at similar size
• Current premium and proposed renewal terms

Attachments: Multiple attachments (Spreadsheets, Documents)

You are a commercial auto underwriter analyzing a 1,200-vehicle fleet with an adverse loss ratio. I am attaching:

Work only from the attached source files. If a conclusion is not supported, say so.

Produce:
1. Normalize the 3-year loss ratio excluding the catastrophic loss: what is the attritional loss ratio, and how does it compare to industry benchmarks?
2. Analyze the non-catastrophic loss patterns: are frequency losses concentrated in specific drivers, vehicle types, routes, or time periods?
3. Assess the fleet safety program: does the telematics data show improving or deteriorating driver behavior trends?
4. Calculate the indicated premium at attritional loss cost and build the case for deviation from the 90% standard.
5. Tell me whether to renew, non-renew, or renew with conditions (driver exclusions, safety program requirements, increased retention).

Call out where independent models are likely to disagree, and list follow-up documents a reviewer should request.

What to expect

• Normalized attritional loss ratio analysis
• Non-catastrophic loss pattern analysis
• Fleet safety program assessment
• Indicated premium deviation analysis
• Renew/non-renew/conditions recommendation with specific conditions

Review before you act

• Validate this output against source files before relying on it: Normalize the 3-year loss ratio excluding the catastrophic loss: what is the attritional loss ratio, and how does it compare to industry benchmarks?.
• Validate this output against source files before relying on it: Analyze the non-catastrophic loss patterns: are frequency losses concentrated in specific drivers, vehicle types, routes, or time periods?.
• Validate this output against source files before relying on it: Assess the fleet safety program: does the telematics data show improving or deteriorating driver behavior trends?.
• Validate this output against source files before relying on it: Calculate the indicated premium at attritional loss cost and build the case for deviation from the 90% standard.
• Confirm every cited figure, date, counterparty, or requirement against the attached originals — models compress and can drop a qualifier.
• Treat disagreement between models as a review item, especially on classification, materiality, and recommended next action.
• Do not authorize an operational, clinical, legal, credit, or enforcement action solely because the models agree.